Barely halfway into May, the summer is nearly over.

Oh, sure, it's still getting hot outside, and will continue to be so for the next three or four months -- but if you ask anyone that happens to be a regular movie-goer, the epics of the 2002 summer season are either already in the theatres or very soon will be. The epics I'm referring to are, of course:

	VS.
Spider-Man		Star Wars Episode II: Attack of the Clones

You've probably already heard the downright perverse Box Office earnings for Spider-Man on opening weekend, and there's little I could say that the numbers don't already say themselves: $114 million opening weekend, and the highest box office tally on a Monday ever. The Spider-Man juggernaut shows absolutely no signs of slowing down, and even the surprisingly high-praised Unfaithful pulled in a paltry $14.2 mil on opening weekend, in comparison with Spider-Man's staggering $72 mil.

The Thursday release of Episode II is where things get a bit more interesting. Here, finally, is a Clash of the Cash Titans worthy of the attention the media is garnering, unlike the PR bullshit that was the Harry Potter vs. LOTR from last winter.

So, naturally, the question on everyone's lips is this: Will Episode II topple the Spider-Man record?

So far, popular speculation has been remarkably wishy-washy. Opinions vary across the board, and asking a hardcore Star Wars fan his or her opinion on the matter has all the objectivity of asking a rabid sports fan what he or she thinks of her particular rival team.

"All right, Crimson," you ask impatiently. "Enough tap-dancing. What's your opinion? Will Episode 2 push Spider-Man out of Box Office history almost as soon as it got in?"

My answer, with some reservations, is NO. Spider-Man will retain the title for highest 3-day opening weekend grosses.

I know, I know. Even to me it sounds like blasphemy. But there are several key factors to consider.

1. If any Star Wars flick would have topped the list, it would have been Episode I. -- This is just plain logistics. The incredible, prolonged hype behind the release of a brand-spankin'-new Star Wars film, after 16 years of silence from the Lucasarts squad, is the sort of publicity that only gods possess and marketing folks have wet dreams about. You cannot, not ever, beat that kind of hype and build-up, with an entire new generation of fans gorging themselves on Episodes IV thru VI and just waiting with baited breath, passing around whispered rumors for over a decade and a half before something new hit the scene. That hype machine cannot be topped. Considering that most folks found Episode I to be a disappointment, expectations among the mainstream crowd will be relatively low.

Caveat: As I have previously commented, movies are being released on more and more screens opening weekend to ensure higher B.O. gross for the first three days. This trend took place after the release of Episode I, and it's anyone's guess how many screens Episode II will be released on, thanks in part to Lucas's iron-fisted tactics. Best estimates put Episode II at 3,000+ screens, and with the double- and triple-booking common for a movie of this magnitude, we may have Episode II showing on over 5,000 screens. More screens equals less sold out showings equals more people seeing movies opening weekend. This is my sole reservation about my prediction.

2. Tie-in merchandise doesn't mean a damn thing. -- The Dallas Morning News rather ridiculously stated yesterday morning that the edge in this race lies in merchandising, and that Episode II thus will win the race because they market, among other things, cereal. Apparently it is news to the DMN that the Star Wars franchise, historically, has a huge merchandise campaign. Nevermind that Lucas and Co. practically invented the merchandise tie-in, Variety reports that Lucasarts is actually diminishing the amount of merchandise released, with $250 million going out for Episode II, in comparison to the $650 million shipped for Episode I ($150 mil of which went unsold. I'm thinking that's $150 million worth of Jar-Jar popsicles where you sucked on his tongue for the fruity flavor.)

3. Lukewarm critical reception. -- Generally not a problem for a sci-fi flick, provided that the film preceeding this one wasn't also a critical flop. Considering most of Western civilization disliked (or downright loathed) Episode I, getting a "same shit, different pile" kind of review for Episode II is going to the turn the mainstream audience -- the real money-generators -- around on their heels and heading into another theatre in the multiplex. I am especially worried that Roger Ebert, a vehement defender of Episode I (like myself), gave Episode II a highly unflattering 2 out of 4 stars. Chilled me down to my bones, and I ain't lyin'.

4. The built-in fanbase, commonly thought to be a strength, will be a flaw. -- Imagine, for a moment, that you are a regular person who has no overwhelming interest in science-fiction, film as an art, or sarcasm-based humor websites. Pretend you are a regular guy in your late-20's-to-mid-30's and you've got a buck or two to spend at the theatre because you haven't been in awhile. Now, do you pick some kind of low-key pleaser, or do you head straight for the sci-fi movie known for generating long lines and huge crowds of gigantic dorks? Perhaps it's just me, but I rather detest seeing most movies in large crowds, and with rare exception avoid doing so like the plague. I rather think a normal person will do everything possible to avoid the insane crowds practically guaranteed by Lucas fandom. Your average Star Wars fan is either too young or too unskilled in the "professional world" to wield the powerful wallets, and fat chance you'll get repeat viewings from them in one weekend when all the showtimes are going to be sold out. No, real B.O. money always comes from the wallets of adults who have more of a taste for generic fare, and if these adults, the casual movie-goers, can choose between a jam-packed gamble of a film or a crowd-pleaser with room to breathe, I think they'll pick the latter every time.

5. Last but certainly not least, Lucasarts' wierdass release tactics. -- Though, praise Allah, Lucas and Co. have taken less Gestapo-esque tactics with Fox in the release of Episode II, a Thursday release date begs the very critical question: What the hell are you smoking? If you want the artificially inflated box office opening numbers, fine, go whole hog and release on Wednesday like every other goddamn studio in the country. But four days? Remember, this competition is for highest gross for the first three days of release, and by shifting the release from a reasonable Friday to a Thursday, you replace revenue-generating Sundays with untested Thursdays for your three-day gross. Again, the real money is in the casual adult movie-goer, and the casual adult movie-goer does not hit the megaplex on Thursdays.

There you have it. A constellation of factors hamper Episode II before it even gets out of the gates. I do not doubt that Episode II will still break all kinds of B.O. records, and will perhaps overcome Spider-Man when the final tallies are pulled in for overall gross, but the web-slinging Super Spider pretty much has this one clinched.

Send all the hate mail you want. I'm already ashamed of myself for speaking against Lucas.