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Academy Award Predictions / Contest - February 25, 2002
 

The Academy Awards are upon us. Yes, all the crap of last year was dredged and scoured for nuggets of gold, and they were more or less found. Only one flaw remains: why, after Steve Martin's superlative hosting job last year, do they go and pick up someone so irrelevant and unfunny as Whoopi Goldberg? To quote one of the great movies of all time, her act is about as fresh as a Foghat concert.

Predictions and betting odds are being tossed around left and right, and I figure, what movie section is complete without a little bit of our own wagering pool? By no means am I encouraging that you gamble based on my predictions... c'mon now, you barely know me. Plus I'd want a cut of any cash you won.

But here's something Unique and Funky: A contest! Yes, that's right, you can win shit. The details are pretty basic. To enter the Oscar Oscar Revolution Giveaway contest, simply send in your picks for the ten categories I discuss below between now and March 23rd. That's one day before the Oscars, for those not "in the know," and so on. The contest is based on how accurate your predictions are -- how many of the 10 you nail dead-on. Any comments you may have on your picks would be worth adding, because if it's particularly entertaining, I'll post it all on the site after the Oscars and share with the world your nuggets of wisdom.

First place will receive a previous Best Picture film of their choice on video or DVD (keep it $25 and under, jokers). Second and third place prizes are yet to be determined, but they will be some kind of solid object -- and worth your time. Let it be known that if you pick Shakespeare in Love as your prize, both your winning spot and your life will be violently revoked.

For a full list of the nominees, click here, but not here.

Without further ado...

Best Picture

What Will Win: In the Bedroom. That is, if the Oscar folks strap on a pair of balls and actually step out on a limb. The Academy is notorious for following politics -- if you're a comedy film, for instance, then tough titty, you ain't gonna win shit. This thriller is definitely outside the norm, but the buzz around it is so solid that the pussies at the Academy wouldn't dare ignore it. Unless, of course, they pull one of their famous snafus -- ignoring Cate Blanchett in Elizabeth for Gwyneth Paltrow in Shakespeare in Love, for instance.

What Should Win: Lord of the Rings: Fellowship of the Ring. The movie's a fucking achievement, plain and simple. I really think my review says all I need to say about the subject. I just think Lord of the Rings has a pretty slim chance, due to the fact that fantasy movies, like comedies, have a snowflake's chance in hell of snaring the Bald Bastard.

I Will Firebomb the Kodak Theatre if Gosford Park Wins. Review says it all. It's an overrated dog that, if it had any name other than Altman's attached to it, would be ignored for the mediocre piece of crap that it is.

Best Actor

Who Will Win: Russell Crowe. Yet again, Crowe proves to us that he is one of our age's most competent and wide-ranged actors. Name me another actor who's played a Roman general, a Big Tobacco whistle-blower, a schizophrenic mathematical genius, a skinhead, and an emotionally distant bruiser cop in the 1950's. True, Crowe already snagged this Bald Bastard last year for Gladiator,which may or may not have been the right choice. But a guy can snag two Oscars in a row for the same category. It's happened before, it can happen again.

Who Should Win: Russell Crowe. I believe the above says it all.

I Will Firebomb the Kodak Theatre if Sean Penn Wins. Besides being anally raped by the critics, this material is just so.. belowhim. I think he was tossed in there because the Academy was running out of ways to ignore Gene Hackman and Guy Pearce.

Best Actress

Who Will Win: Halle Berry. They're going to give while the giving's good. I doubt Berry's ever going to do anything worthy of this nomination ever again. She's, let's face it, not the world's greatest thespian. At least it ain't Julia fuckin' Roberts.

Who Should Win: Nicole Kidman. So it's my belief that she should win this category for her performance in The Others, not Moulin Rouge. So I'm only really picking her because basically she deserves one for overall achievement, and has been ignored for way, way too long. I'm allowed to do a little politicking; it practically defines the Oscars.

I Will Firebomb the Kodak Theatre if Renee Zellweger Wins. Don't get me wrong. I think Zellweger's a great actress who has also been ignored for some time now. But I do not think that this performance is the one that should get her a Bald Bastard. So she threw on an english accent that was good. So? She put on weight to fulfill the role. So? So did Stallone for Cop Land, and the Academy wasn't beating down his door to give him awards. I'd just like to be the voice of reason here: Bridget Jones' Diary is a weak, weak film, mediocre right down to its barely-pumping little heart. It's unfortunate that films like this one and Legally Blonde can somehow be seen as "empowerment" films, considering how lame and formulaic these movies really are. I blame Erin Brokovich.

Best Supporting Actor

Who Will Win: Ben Kingsley. I confess I did not see Sexy Beast. I really, really wanted to. This is a situation sort of like Berry's: Kingsley got a Bald Bastard, sure, way the hell back when, but he'll never get one again, more than likely... so give it now, while you still can.

Who Should Win: Ian McKellen. Fuckin' Gandalf!

I Will Firebomb the Kodak Theatre if Ethan Hawke Wins. Oh come on. It's Ethan Hawke. If he ever wins a Bald Bastard -- ever -- I will break something. I mean seriously.

Best Supporting Actress

Who Will Win: Jennifer Connelly. Again, my review says all I need to say. She puts on one of the most amazing performances of the year, and absolutely dazzles as the soft but incredibly tough Alicia Nash in A Beautiful Mind. She's been ignored by the Academy previously, but now they have no excuse.

Who Should Win: Jennifer Connelly. There will be justice. I hope.

I Will Firebomb the Kodak Theatre if Maggie Smith or Helen Mirren Wins. Aside from Gosford Park sucking, these two lauded actresses really didn't do anything special. Maggie Smith played a stereotype with vaguely amusing one-liners, and Helen Mirren.. man, was she even in Gosford Park? She had about ten minutes screentime, total. Then again, a Judi Dench/Shakespeare in Love travesty could be committed again. God help us all.

Best Director

Who Will Win: Robert Altman. Giving while the giving's good yet again. It's a common Oscar tactic; this year's work may not even be close to his best, but how many more films is he going to make that the Academy will be able to feasibly consider? Give him an Oscar, shut him up.

Who Should Win: Peter Jackson. I said all I needed to say above, in the Best Picture category. What Jackson did was a quantum leap in the area of art-as-storytelling; his visuals are nothing short of astounding. They amaze, they dazzle, they redefine what a movie-going experience should be like. Mid-World is instantly believable, and infinitely attractive. To take material that has so much potential to be profoundly silly and make the best movie of the year -- that is an achievement worthy of not just a Bald Bastard, but probably some really good oral sex, too.

I Will Firebomb the Kodak Theatre if David Lynch Wins. I know I'll piss off a few film nerds with this one. Sorry, folks, but Mullholland Drive was a sloppy mess deserving nothing more than passing glance on the way to some other theatre. The fact that incoherence was used for the sake of incoherence, and to cover up a rather banal story and predictably 'eccentric' cinematography really says it all. Pass.

Best Animated Film - The first year for this category's existence, and the Academy already fucked it up. Praise be to the AMPAS.

What Will Win: Shrek. Mildly funny movie that got so much buzz and generated so much talk about the "future of traditional animation" because nothing else out at the time was even marginally tolerable. Very, very overrated, but everyone loved it. Yawn.

What Should Win: None of the above. I dug Monsters Inc., and I suppose there was nothing objectionable about Shrek, but some of the year's most interesting animated films -- Waking Life, Vampire Hunter D: Bloodlust -- were blatantly ignored. The three nominees do nothing that Toy Story didn't do years ago, both in innovation and storytelling. Hell, either Toy Story was twice as original as any of these exercises in blandness.

I Will Firebomb the Kodak Theatre if Jimmy Neutron Wins. Really. Jimmy fuckin' Neutron? God, even the animation in the trailer looked like shit in comparison to both Shrek and Monsters Inc., and trailers are where the best stuff goes. Add to that a typically stupid paint-by-numbers kiddie plot and you have... an instantly forgettable piece of garbage.

Best Foreign Film

What Will Win: Amelie. It's got some adorable little French chick in the lead, some handsome French guy, and a matchmaker plot that sounds suspiciously similar to Emma. Chicks dig it. I'm surprised the Golden Globes (even less daring than the Oscars) didn't fellate this film like the Academy no doubt will.

What Should Win: No Man's Land. Review. What we have here is a Bosnian film that so effortlessly breaches the cultural line to touch American audiences in a true example of unparalleled movie craftsmanship. The story is touching and complex, with no easy solutions and no cheap ending. Alas, it probably won't snag the Bald Bastard.

I Will Firebomb the Kodak Theatre if <blank> Wins. I don't care enough.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Who Will Win: Ghost World, by Daniel Clowes and Terry Zwigoff. Yet another film that failed to deliver on any sort of mature level, but for some reason, it's a big-time critical darling. I guess you can tell these critics haven't been teenagers any time recently. Anyway, it's "quirky," which is usually a strike against, but so far the Academy wants to be seen as a little hipper, so they'll probably give it the Bald Bastard.

Who Should Win: Lord of the Rings: Fellowship of the Ring, by Fran Walsh, Philippa Boyens, and Peter Jackson. Duh.

I Will Firebomb the Kodak Theatre if Ghost World by Daniel Clowes and Terry Zwigoff Wins. It's a bad, clichéd look into one of the most annoying protagonists I've seen portrayed in a long time. Not much of anything happens during the duration of the film, other than Thora Birch's character being an idiotic little bitch who fucks all her personal relationships up, and the ending is so lacking in closure it reaches into the territory of arbitrary. Looks like the Kodak Theatre's going to get a napalm enema come March 24th.

Best Original Screenplay

Who Will Win: Memento, by Christopher and Jonathan Nolan. Here's the funny thing: this wasn't written directly for the screen. Memento began as a short story by Jonathan Nolan, and his brother later adapted it for the screen. Which would make it, that's right, eligible for Best Adapted Screenplay. But whatever. Anyway, I'm putting faith into the fact that the Academy will realize gold when they see it, and give this harrowing tale of revenge and haunting the praise it deserves. Also, they know they'll get violated in an uncomfortable place if they ignore it.

Who Should Win: Memento, by Christopher and Jonathan Nolan. Yep.

I Will Firebomb the Kodak Theatre if Gosford Park by Julian Fellowes Wins. Thought I was done humbling this film, didn't you? Look, it really isn't anything special. Wait, I take that back -- if you've never seen a movie before, it's probably pretty epic.

 
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